Climate Change in Wales: The Latest Data, Risks and Progress

This page is our standing summary of climate change in Wales. It pulls together headline figures from Natural Resources Wales, Welsh Government and the Met Office, states clearly whether each number is observed, reported or projected, and links to the detailed article behind each theme. It is reviewed quarterly.

The 60-word answer

Wales is warming, wetter in winter and drier in some summers. Around one in seven properties is already at flood risk, sea levels could rise by up to about a metre by 2100, and water resource zones serving 70% of the population could face deficits by 2050. Emissions were 30.13 MtCO₂e in 2024, led by industry rather than transport.

Climate and temperature

Observed. Welsh seasons are shifting within a warming UK climate. Spring 2025 in Wales averaged 9.69°C, some 1.39°C above the 1991–2020 average, with only 52% of normal rainfall and 144% of average sunshine (Met Office). A single season is weather, not climate, but it sits inside a trend that is unambiguous.

Flooding

Reported and projected. NRW estimates around 275,000 properties, roughly one in seven, are at risk of flooding once properties counted under more than one source are removed. Risk from rivers, the sea and surface water is assessed separately and the categories overlap, so they must never be added together. Read the full flood risk article.

Coastal change

Projected. NRW expects sea levels around Wales to rise by up to approximately one metre by 2100, with increasing coastal flooding, erosion, infrastructure exposure and saltwater intrusion. “Could rise by up to” is not the same as “will be underwater”.

Water security

Projected. Water resource zones covering 70% of the Welsh population could be in deficit by 2050 unless leakage control and water efficiency measures are implemented (NRW). Read the full water article.

Welsh greenhouse gas emissions

Reported. Welsh emissions totalled 30.13 MtCO₂e in 2024, led by industry (6.73 Mt), then domestic transport (5.79 Mt) and agriculture (5.16 Mt), a materially different profile from the UK as a whole. See the full sector breakdown.

Renewable energy

Reported. Wales generated renewable electricity equivalent to 54% of its electricity consumption in 2024, against targets of 70% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

Nature and biodiversity

Reported. NRW’s 2025 assessment describes Wales as highly nature-depleted, with almost one in five species at risk of extinction, and only 40% of water bodies achieving good status.

Woodlands and soil carbon

Reported. Wales has around 313,000 hectares of woodland, about 15% of land cover. Welsh soils are estimated to store around 410 million tonnes of carbon, a stock that degraded peatland can turn into a source.

Recycling and the circular economy

Reported. Wales recycled 68.4% of municipal waste in 2024/25, up from 66.6% the previous year, with only 0.7% landfilled. NRW also notes that Welsh resource consumption, replicated globally, would require more than two Earths.

Business and public sector emissions

Reported. Around 72% of reported Welsh public sector emissions in 2024 came from supply chains. For suppliers, that makes Scope 3 a procurement issue rather than an ethical one. Read the supply chain article.

Sources and methodology

• State of Natural Resources Report (SoNaRR) 2025, Natural Resources Wales.
• Greenhouse gas emissions statistics, Welsh Government and StatsWales.
• Seasonal climate summaries, Met Office.

Where a figure is a projection under a climate scenario we say so. Where sources overlap, as with flood categories, we do not combine them.

Last reviewed: 31 August 2026. Reviewed quarterly.

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