Could 1 in 4 Properties in England Be at Flood Risk by 2050?

In December 2024 the Environment Agency published the largest update to its national flood and coastal erosion risk assessment in more than a decade. Two numbers from it have travelled widely: 6.3 million properties at risk now, and around 8 million, roughly one in four, by 2050. Both are worth understanding precisely, because the wording carries the meaning.

What the evidence says

• Government statistic: 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water (Environment Agency, 17 December 2024).
• Projection: under a changing climate, around 8 million properties, roughly one in four, could be at risk by 2050.
• Zero to Green interpretation: “in an area at risk” is not the same as “will flood”, and the distinction is not pedantry.

What does “at risk of flooding” mean here?

The assessment counts properties located in areas with some modelled likelihood of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water. That likelihood ranges from high to very low. A property in the count is not a property expected to flood; it is a property inside a mapped risk zone. Equally, being outside the count is not a guarantee of safety, surface water flooding in particular can occur in places with no history of it.

Where does the 2050 figure come from?

The December 2024 release was the first national assessment to model future risk as well as present risk. The 8 million figure is a projection under a climate change scenario, not a forecast of certain outcomes. The correct phrasing is that around one in four properties in England could be in an area at risk by 2050. Anyone writing “one in four homes will flood by 2050” has changed the claim into something the source does not support.

Why is surface water such a large part of this?

Surface water flooding, rainfall overwhelming drainage before it reaches a river, affects a very large number of properties and is less visible than river or coastal flooding. It is not tied to proximity to a watercourse, which is why many people are surprised to find their address inside a risk zone. Heavier short-duration rainfall is one of the better-established consequences of a warming atmosphere, which is why this category grows in the projections.

What should an organisation do with this?

• Check the actual sites you occupy, not just your head office, using the Environment Agency’s public flood risk service.
• Separate likelihood from consequence. A low-likelihood site holding your only server room is a bigger problem than a medium-likelihood site holding spare stock.
• Write adaptation into your climate plan. Emissions reduction and physical risk are different problems; a Carbon Reduction Plan does not address flooding, and saying so openly is more credible than blurring the two.
• Ask suppliers the same question. Concentrated supplier locations in one river catchment are a single point of failure.

What we are not claiming

We are not claiming that 8 million properties will flood, that the projection is the only plausible scenario, or that these figures apply outside England. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have their own assessments on different methodologies, see our companion piece on flood risk in Wales for why the numbers must not be mixed.

Sources and methodology

• Environment Agency publishes major update to national flood and coastal erosion risk assessment, GOV.UK, 17 December 2024.
• National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024, Environment Agency, December 2024.

Present-day and projected counts are quoted as published. The “one in four” framing is the Environment Agency’s own proportion for the 2050 projection.

Last reviewed: 30 August 2026.

Related reading: 2025, the UK’s warmest year on record. To publish your own commitment, create a pledge or browse the public directory.